Basic Economics Page 2

  Money doesn’t even have to be involved to make a decision be economic. When a military medical team arrives on a battlefield where soldiers have a variety of wounds, they are confronted with the classic economic problem of allocating scarce resources which have alternative uses. Almost never are there enough doctors, nurses, or paramedics to go around, nor enough medications. Some of the wounded are near death and have little chance of being saved, while others have a fighting chance if they get immediate care, and still others are only slightly wounded and will probably recover whether they get immediate attention or not.

  If the medical team does not allocate its time and medications efficiently, some wounded soldiers will die needlessly, while time is being spent attending to others not as urgently in need of care or still others whose wounds are so devastating that they will probably die in spite of anything that can be done for them. It is an economic problem, though not a dime changes hands.

  Most of us hate even to think of having to make such choices. Indeed, as we have already seen, some middle-class Americans are distressed at having to make much milder choices and trade-offs. But life does not ask us what we want. It presents us with options. Economics is one of the ways of trying to make the most of those options.

  PART I:

  PRICES AND MARKETS

  Chapter 2

  THE ROLE OF PRICES

  The wonder of markets is that they reconcile the choices of myriad individuals.

  William Easterly{9}

  Since we know that the key task facing any economy is the allocation of scarce resources which have alternative uses, the next question is: How does an economy do that?

  Different kinds of economies obviously do it differently. In a feudal economy, the lord of the manor simply told the people under him what to do and where he wanted resources put: Grow less barley and more wheat, put fertilizer here, more hay there, drain the swamps. It was much the same story in twentieth century Communist societies, such as the Soviet Union, which organized a far more complex modern economy in much the same way, with the government issuing orders for a hydroelectric dam to be built on the Volga River, for so many tons of steel to be produced in Siberia, so much wheat to be grown in the Ukraine. By contrast, in a market economy coordinated by prices, there is no one at the top to issue orders to control or coordinate activities throughout the economy.

  How an incredibly complex, high-tech economy can operate without any central direction is baffling to many. The last President of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, is said to have asked British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher: “How do you see to it that people get food?” The answer was that she didn’t. Prices did that. Moreover, the British people were better fed than people in the Soviet Union, even though the British have not produced enough food to feed themselves in more than a century. Prices bring them food from other countries.

  Without the role of prices, imagine what a monumental bureaucracy it would take to see to it that the city of London alone is supplied with the tons of food, of every variety, which it consumes every day. Yet such an army of bureaucrats can be dispensed with—and the people that would be needed in such a bureaucracy can do productive work elsewhere in the economy—because the simple mechanism of prices does the same job faster, cheaper and better.

  This is also true in China, where the Communists still run the government but, by the early twenty-first century, were allowing free markets to operate in much of that country’s economy. Although China has one-fifth of the total population of the world, it has only 10 percent of the world’s arable land, so feeding its people could continue to be the critical problem that it once was, back in the days when recurring famines took millions of lives each in China. Today prices attract food to China from other countries:

  China’s food supplement is coming from abroad—from South America, the U.S. and Australia. This means prosperity for agricultural traders and processors like Archer Daniels Midland. They’re moving into China in all of the ways you’d expect in a $100 billion national market for processed food that’s growing more than 10% annually. It means a windfall for farmers in the American Midwest, who are enjoying soybean prices that have risen about two-thirds from what they were a year ago. It means a better diet for the Chinese, who have raised their caloric intake by a third in the past quarter-century.{10}

  Given the attractive power of prices, the American fried-chicken company KFC was by the early twenty-first century making more sales in China than in the United States.{11} China’s per capita consumption of dairy products nearly doubled in just five years.{12} A study estimated that one-fourth of the adults in China were overweight{13}—not a good thing in itself, but a heartening development in a country once afflicted with recurring famines.

  ECONOMIC DECISION-MAKING

  The fact that no given individual or set of individuals controls or coordinates all the innumerable economic activities in a market economy does not mean that these things just happen randomly or chaotically. Each consumer, producer, retailer, landlord, or worker makes individual transactions with other individuals on whatever terms they can mutually agree on. Prices convey those terms, not just to the particular individuals immediately involved but throughout the whole economic system—and indeed, throughout the world. If someone else somewhere else has a better product or a lower price for the same product or service, that fact gets conveyed and acted upon through prices, without any elected official or planning commission having to issue orders to consumers or producers—indeed, faster than any planners could assemble the information on which to base their orders.

  If someone in Fiji figures out how to manufacture better shoes at lower costs, it will not be long before you are likely to see those shoes on sale at attractive prices in the United States or in India, or anywhere in between. After the Second World War ended, Americans could begin buying cameras from Japan, whether or not officials in Washington were even aware at that time that the Japanese made cameras. Given that any modern economy has millions of products, it is too much to expect the leaders of any country to even know what all those products are, much less know how much of each resource should be allocated to the production of each of those millions of products.

  Prices play a crucial role in determining how much of each resource gets used where and how the resulting products get transferred to millions of people. Yet this role is seldom understood by the public and it is often disregarded entirely by politicians. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in her memoirs said that Mikhail Gorbachev “had little understanding of economics,”{14} even though he was at that time the leader of the largest nation on earth. Unfortunately, he was not unique in that regard. The same could be said of many other national leaders around the world, in countries large and small, democratic or undemocratic.

  In countries where prices coordinate economic activities automatically, that lack of knowledge of economics does not matter nearly as much as in countries where political leaders try to direct and coordinate economic activities.

  Many people see prices as simply obstacles to their getting the things they want. Those who would like to live in a beach-front home, for example, may abandon such plans when they discover how extremely expensive beach-front property can be. But high prices are not the reason we cannot all live in beach-front houses. On the contrary, the inherent reality is that there are not nearly enough beach-front homes to go around, and prices simply convey that underlying reality. When many people bid for a relatively few homes, those homes become very expensive because of supply and demand. But it is not the prices that cause the scarcity. There would be the same scarcity under feudalism or socialism or in a tribal society.

  If the government today were to come up with a “plan” for “universal access” to beach-front homes and put “caps” on the prices that could be charged for such property, that would not change the underlying reality of the extremely high ratio of people to beach-front land. With a given population and a given amount of beach-fr
ont property, rationing without prices would have to take place by bureaucratic fiat, political favoritism or random chance—but the rationing would still have to take place. Even if the government were to decree that beach-front homes were a “basic right” of all members of society, that would still not change the underlying scarcity in the slightest.

  Prices are like messengers conveying news—sometimes bad news, in the case of beach-front property desired by far more people than can possibly live at the beach, but often also good news. For example, computers have been getting both cheaper and better at a very rapid rate, as a result of technological advances. Yet the vast majority of beneficiaries of those high-tech advances have not the foggiest idea of just what specifically those technological changes are. But prices convey to them the end results—which are all that matter for their own decision-making and their own enhanced productivity and general well-being from using computers.

  Similarly, if vast new rich iron ore deposits were suddenly discovered somewhere, perhaps no more than one percent of the population would be likely to be aware of it, but everyone would discover that things made of steel were becoming cheaper. People thinking of buying desks, for example, would discover that steel desks had become more of a bargain compared to wooden desks and some would undoubtedly change their minds as to which kind of desk to purchase because of that. The same would be true when comparing various other products made of steel to competing products made of aluminum, copper, plastic, wood, or other materials. In short, price changes would enable a whole society—indeed, consumers around the world—to adjust automatically to a greater abundance of known iron ore deposits, even if 99 percent of those consumers were wholly unaware of the new discovery.

  Prices are not just ways of transferring money. Their primary role is to provide financial incentives to affect behavior in the use of resources and their resulting products. Prices not only guide consumers, they guide producers as well. When all is said and done, producers cannot possibly know what millions of different consumers want. All that automobile manufacturers, for example, know is that when they produce cars with a certain combination of features they can sell those cars for a price that covers their production costs and leaves them a profit, but when they manufacture cars with a different combination of features, these don’t sell as well. In order to get rid of the unsold cars, the sellers must cut the prices to whatever level is necessary to get them off the dealers’ lots, even if that means taking a loss. The alternative would be to take a bigger loss by not selling them at all.

  Although a free market economic system is sometimes called a profit system, it is in reality a profit-and-loss system—and the losses are equally important for the efficiency of the economy, because losses tell producers what to stop doing—what to stop producing, where to stop putting resources, what to stop investing in. Losses force the producers to stop producing what consumers don’t want. Without really knowing why consumers like one set of features rather than another, producers automatically produce more of what earns a profit and less of what is losing money. That amounts to producing what the consumers want and stopping the production of what they don’t want. Although the producers are only looking out for themselves and their companies’ bottom line, nevertheless from the standpoint of the economy as a whole the society is using its scarce resources more efficiently because decisions are guided by prices.

  Prices formed a worldwide web of communication long before there was an Internet. Prices connect you with anyone, anywhere in the world where markets are allowed to operate freely, so that places with the lowest prices for particular goods can sell those goods around the world. As a result, you can end up wearing shirts made in Malaysia, shoes produced in Italy, and slacks made in Canada, while driving a car manufactured in Japan, rolling on tires produced in France.

  Price-coordinated markets enable people to signal to other people how much they want and how much they are willing to offer for it, while other people signal what they are willing to supply in exchange for what compensation. Prices responding to supply and demand cause natural resources to move from places where they are abundant, like Australia, to places where they are almost non-existent, like Japan. The Japanese are willing to pay higher prices than Australians pay for those resources. These higher prices will cover shipping costs and still leave a larger profit than selling the same resources within Australia, where their abundance makes their prices lower. A discovery of large bauxite deposits in India would reduce the cost of aluminum baseball bats in America. A disastrous failure of the wheat crop in Argentina would raise the incomes of farmers in Ukraine, who would now find more demand for their wheat in the world market, and therefore higher prices.

  When more of some item is supplied than demanded, competition among sellers trying to get rid of the excess will force the price down, discouraging future production, with the resources used for that item being set free for use in producing something else that is in greater demand. Conversely, when the demand for a particular item exceeds the existing supply, rising prices due to competition among consumers encourage more production, drawing resources away from other parts of the economy to accomplish that.

  The significance of free market prices in the allocation of resources can be seen more clearly by looking at situations where prices are not allowed to perform this function. During the era of the government-directed economy of the Soviet Union, for example, prices were not set by supply and demand but by central planners who sent resources to their various uses by direct commands, supplemented by prices that the planners raised or lowered as they saw fit. Two Soviet economists, Nikolai Shmelev and Vladimir Popov, described a situation in which their government raised the price it would pay for moleskins, leading hunters to get and sell more of them:

  State purchases increased, and now all the distribution centers are filled with these pelts. Industry is unable to use them all, and they often rot in warehouses before they can be processed. The Ministry of Light Industry has already requested Goskomtsen twice to lower purchasing prices, but the “question has not been decided” yet. And this is not surprising. Its members are too busy to decide. They have no time: besides setting prices on these pelts, they have to keep track of another 24 million prices.{15}

  However overwhelming it might be for a government agency to try to keep track of 24 million prices, a country with more than a hundred million people can far more easily keep track of those prices individually, because no given individual or enterprise has to keep track of more than the relatively few prices that are relevant to their own decision-making. The over-all coordination of these innumerable isolated decisions takes place through the effect of supply and demand on prices and the effect of prices on the behavior of consumers and producers. Money talks—and people listen. Their reactions are usually faster than central planners could get their reports together.

  While telling people what to do might seem to be a more rational or orderly way of coordinating an economy, it has turned out repeatedly to be far less effective in practice. The situation as regards pelts was common for many other goods during the days of the Soviet Union’s centrally planned economy, where a chronic problem was a piling up of unsold goods in warehouses at the very time when there were painful shortages of other things that could have been produced with the same resources. In a market economy, the prices of surplus goods would fall automatically by supply and demand, while the prices of goods in short supply would rise automatically for the same reason—the net result being a shifting of resources from the former to the latter, again automatically, as producers seek to gain profits and avoid losses.

  The problem was not that particular planners made particular mistakes in the Soviet Union or in other planned economies. Whatever the mistakes made by central planners, there are mistakes made in all kinds of economic systems—capitalist, socialist, or whatever. The more fundamental problem with central planning has been that the task taken on has repeatedly proven to be too much for
human beings, in whatever country that task has been taken on. As Soviet economists Shmelev and Popov put it:

  No matter how much we wish to organize everything rationally, without waste, no matter how passionately we wish to lay all the bricks of the economic structure tightly, with no chinks in the mortar, it is not yet within our power.{16}

  PRICES AND COSTS

  Prices in a market economy are not simply numbers plucked out of the air or arbitrarily set by sellers. While you may put whatever price you wish on the goods or services you provide, those prices will become economic realities only if others are willing to pay them—and that depends not on whatever prices you have chosen but on how much consumers want what you offer and on what prices other producers charge for the same goods and services.

  Even if you produce something that would be worth $100 to a customer and offer it for sale at $80, that customer will still not buy it from you if another producer offers the same thing for $70. Obvious as all this may seem, its implications are not at all obvious to some people—those who blame high prices on “greed,” for example, for that implies that a seller can set prices at will and make sales at those arbitrary prices. For example, a front-page newspaper story in The Arizona Republic began:

  Greed drove metropolitan Phoenix’s home prices and sales to new records in 2005. Fear is driving the market this year.{17}

  This implies that lower prices meant less greed, rather than changed circumstances that reduce the sellers’ ability to charge the same prices as before and still make sales. The changed circumstances in this case included the fact that homes for sale in Phoenix remained on the market longer before being sold than during the year before, and the fact that home builders were “struggling to sell even deeply discounted new homes.”{18} There was not the slightest indication that sellers were any less interested in getting as much money as they could for the houses they sold—that is, that they were any less “greedy.”